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Article Contributor: Brian Freskos, University of North Carolina Wilmington
Updated: 10 May 2010


Page Outline:

1. Basic Facts
2. What Is a Nuclear Weapon?
3. Brief Nuclear History
4. Brief State Overview
5. Measures to Halt Advance of Nuclear Weapons
6. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
7. Do Your Own Research
8. What Is Washington Doing?
9. Sources

Basic Facts

• Nuclear proliferation is a term used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons across the globe.
• Many countries have developed nuclear weapons as a deterrent to attacks from nuclear weapons states. Some others have also followed nuclear ambitions for patriotic reasons. Still, in the last few decades, as the impacts have been realized, steps have been taken to reduce nuclear weapon arsenals and to halt the spread of technology and know-how.
• Nine countries are believed to currently possess nuclear weapons: United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

What Is a Nuclear Weapon?

Power:

• In its basic form, an atomic weapon uses a process called fission to release nuclear energy. Experts say that fission bombs have the destructive power equivalent to about 10,000 tons of TNT.
• A hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb is much stronger. It implements a process called fusion—as opposed to fission—to create a destructive power equal to approximately 1,000,000 tons of TNT, or 1 megaton.

Development:

• To develop a nuclear weapon, fissile or fussionable, and/or source materials are required. Fissile materials are composed of atoms that can be split to produce energy, like plutonium-239 and uranium-235.
• Fussionable materials are composed of atoms that can fuse to create power. They include deuterium and tritium.
• Source materials boost the power of nuclear weapons by providing a source of atomic particles for fission.
• Uranium enrichment is a process that involves spinning uranium gas in centrifuges to be purified. To create electricity, uranium is enriched at low levels; for a bomb, it is enriched at high levels.

Delivery Vehicles:

• Delivery vehicles include land-based intercontinental missiles, submarine-based missiles, bombers and cruise missiles.

Brief Nuclear History

The Manhattan Project:

• In 1942, about a month after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, President Franklin Roosevelt approved the development of an atomic bomb.
• Dr. Robert Oppenheimer was put in charge of a team of researchers at the Lo Alamos National Observatory, what would later be known as the Manhattan Project.
• As a result of the Manhattan Project, the first fission atomic bomb was tested in the Alamogordo Desert in New Mexico on July 16, 1945.

Attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki:

• In August, 1945, the first and only atomic attacks in history would level the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. Estimates vary, but authorities agree that hundreds of thousands died from both blasts, mostly from burns and radiation sickness.

Cold War:

• The late 1940’s saw the already tense relations between the United States and Russia boil over, sparking the Cold War and leading to an accelerated nuclear arm buildup between both nations.
• In 1949, Russia would test its first nuclear weapon.

Development of the hydrogen bomb:

• President Harry S. Truman would establish a program in 1950 that led to the development of a hydrogen bomb, which uses fusion to create explosions more than 1,000 times the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
• By 1954, both the United States and Russia would develop and test a successful hydrogen bomb with powers 1,000 times greater than the fission bombs dropped on Japan. Also, Brazil began an ambitious nuclear program that same year.

Nuclear programs spread:

• In 1955, Argentina initiates nuclear program, retaining its ability to develop weapons.
• In 1957, the International Atomic Energy Agency was established.
• In the midst of the Cold War in 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis would bring the world to the brink of nuclear war. That same year, the U.S., Russia and U.K. would sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, forbidding the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, underwater or in outer space.
• By 1964, the United Kingdom, France and China would go nuclear.
• The amount of nuclear weapons across the globe mushroomed from 3,000 in 1955 to more than 37,000 by 1965, 99 percent of which were in the hands of the United States and Russia.
• Israel is believed to have acquired nuclear capabilities in 1967.
• The 1970’s witnessed the ratification of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which has been credited with placing a major hurdle in the path of nuclear proliferation. But the 1970’s also saw the development of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. South Korea and Taiwan also undertook a secret nuclear weapons program, although they would both end within a few years due to U.S. pressure. South Africa developed its first nuclear weapon in 1979 but would dismantle its arsenal by 1991.
• In 1982, Iraq is believed to have accelerated its nuclear weapons program despite being party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• The world saw Brazil and Argentina formally renounce nuclear weapons in 1991.
• In 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty to pursue its nuclear ambitions. It would test its first nuclear device in 2006.

Nuclear arsenals retract:

• Russia and the United States have pledged to reduce their nuclear weapon arsenals and delivery vehicles, although 95 percent of the world’s warheads still lie in the hands of both nations.

Brief State Overview

United States:

• In a conciliatory gesture toward Iran on May 3, 2010, the Obama administration disclosed the size of its nuclear arsenal: 5,113 weapons, according to The Washington Post. According to a Pentagon fact sheet, the U.S. nuclear stockpile has plummeted since 1967, when the country boasted an arsenal of 31,255 weapons, The Washington Post reported. The gesture was delivered during a high-level month-long nuclear conference that was held in New York with aims of tightening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. During the conference, U.S. officials prodded Iran to divulge more about its secretive nuclear program and hone up to any possible violations of the NPT. Iran is one of the 189 NPT signatories. The Obama administration announced the size of its nuclear stockpile as part of an effort to promote transparency among nuclear nations and those with secretive nuclear programs.
• The Arms Control Association reported that the U.S. is the only country to station nuclear weapons outside of its own borders. It has more than 480 warheads in the following countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
• The U.S. has conducted more than 1,000 nuclear weapons tests from 1945 to 1992, according to the association.

United Kingdom:

• According to the Arms Control Association, the United Kingdom has less than 160 deployed strategic warheads. It promised in 2006 to trim its reserve stockpile—the size of which is secret—by 20 percent.
• Like the U.S., the U.K. has reaffirmed its commitment not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states who are parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. London’s affirmation, however, is subject to state behavior and alliances.
• The association asserts that despite being a leading supplier of conventional weapons to other states, the U.K. has not been suspected of having contributed to the spread of nuclear weapons.
• London has conducted 45 nuclear weapons tests from 1952 to 1991.

Russia:

• Russia has agreed to limit its nuclear arsenal to 2,200 warheads by 2012; and to between 1,500 and 1,675 by 2016.
• It is currently believed that Russia has deployed 2,000 to 3,000 nuclear warheads.
• Washington and independent analysts have charged Russia with being a major aid of nuclear material to states of concern, including Iran and India; although recently, Russia has joined the United States in presenting a united front against the spread of nuclear weapons in North Korea and Iran.
• Nuclear scientists left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union have been perceived as a threat, since they contain a book of knowledge that could be harnessed by other states bent on developing weapons.
• According to the Arms Control Association, the U.S. has led programs dedicated to mitigating this threat by helping Russia and the former Soviet Union countries destroy their facilities, materials and weapon systems; and have employed former nuclear scientists in non-arms related work.
• Russia hasn’t conducted a nuclear test since the fall of the Soviet Union; though between 1949 and 1990, the country conducted approximately 715.

Pakistan:

• Pakistan, which shares a border with the conflict-state of Afghanistan, is home to between 60-100 nuclear warheads.
• Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program began in the 1970’s but was spurred on when India, which lies on its eastern border, conducted its first weapons test in 1974.
• Although the United States imposed sanctions on Pakistan in an effort to curb its nuclear ambitions, the attacks of September 11 led the U.S. to pursue closer relations with Pakistan as part of the “war on terror.”
• Pakistan has conducted two nuclear tests—both of them in 1998.
• According to the New York Times, a Pakistani metallurgist named Abdul Khan, transformed Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program into a supply chain, distributing technology and know-how to states like Iran, Libya and North Korea.
• Islamabad has since denied any knowledge or complicity in that network, and even though Khan has since been arrested and confined to house arrest, there is concern that remnants of the supply network remain.
• According to the New York Times, in most nuclear countries, a civilian agency is entrusted with nuclear control; however, the military handles the nuclear arsenal in Pakistan.
• Pakistan has agreed to abstain from nuclear testing.

North Korea:

• More than a decade of treaties and negotiations failed to halt North Korea’s weapons program, and in 2005, announced that it had assembled nuclear warheads.
• North Korea conducted its first and only nuclear test in 2006, after negotiations between itself and five other nations—including the United States—failed to yield any results regarding the suspension of its nuclear program.
• Independent analysts believe that North Korea has separated enough plutonium to assemble up to 12 nuclear warheads.
• Having acceded from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003, the international community has focused on bringing North Korea back into the framework by urging it to dismantle its nuclear program.
• In response to its nuclear weapons test, the United Nations Security Council adopted a variety of multilateral sanctions and demanded that the country return to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. North Korea has not complied.

Israel:

• The Israeli nuclear program remains highly secret and not much appears to be known about it.
• Analysts believe that Israel maintains an arsenal of between 75-200 nuclear warheads, and has outfitted aircraft and submarines to deliver the bombs, according to the Arms Control Association.
• Israel is not suspected of having contributed to proliferation.

Iran:

• As suspicions over the Iranian nuclear program rose and Tehran continued to refuse international demands and halt uranium enrichment, the United Nations Security Council on June 9, 2010  levied a fourth round of sanctions aimed at curtailing the country’s nuclear ambitions.
• The sanctions, which received significant backing from the U.S., take aim at Iran’s financial, trade and military transactions, specifically targeting the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is believed to have a strong hand in managing the country’s nuclear program.
• The sanctions, for example, ban the sell of heavy weaponry to Iran, including battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large caliber artillery shells and artillery systems, combat aircraft, warships and missiles and missile systems.
• The sanctions also require countries to inspect ships or planes bound to or from Iran that are suspected of transporting banned cargo, however they do not grant authorization to board ships out at sea.Despite strong lobbying by the U.S., the sanctions were largely viewed as inadequate and they failed to carry the symbolic weight of a unanimous security council decision, a prospect that, had it succeeded, would have sent a sharp international signal of condemnation to the Iranian government. The vote went 12-3. Turkey and Brazil opposed the measures and Lebanon abstained.
• Though watered down, the latest international sanctions supplied the imprimatur that western nations needed before crafting and imposing their own rounds of penalties against the Iranian leadership.
• On June 16, the U.S. levied its own sanctions that, among other things, prohibit financial transactions between Americans and certain designated Iranian entities, as well as freeze whatever assets those entities own within U.S. jurisdiction. They also hit 22 petroleum, energy and insurance companies that are controlled by the Iranian government both inside and outside the country.
• The European Union quickly followed suit, approving a round of measures on June 17 that include the barring of Iranian shipping and air cargo companies from operating inside EU territory and the freezing of assets belonging to the Guard Corps, as well as other sanctions against the country’s gas and oil industry.

India:

• Since 1974, India has conducted three nuclear weapons tests and currently holds a stockpile of up to 100 warheads, the Arms Control Association reported.
• This south-Asian country is likely continuing a program of enriching uranium, but has pledged that it is maintaining a stockpile as a deterrent, and will only use its weapons as retaliation for an attack.
• Analysts say that India has a history of releasing technologies and know-how to countries like Iraq and Iran, which have then been utilized for the development of nuclear weapons.
  India has agreed to abstain from nuclear testing.

France:

• France is officially recognized as a nuclear weapons state under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• According to the Arms Control Association, France is believed to have about 350 strategic nuclear warheads.
• France has never been charged with contributing to nuclear proliferation.

China:

• China is believed to have a contingent of weapons that number between 100 to 200. The state has conducted 45 nuclear tests between 1964 and 1996, according to the Arms Control Association.
• China has boasted that it maintains the smallest arsenal of any state recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• The country has been charged with aiding nuclear weapons programs in Pakistan, Iran, Libya, North Korea and Saudi Arabia.
• Sanctions and restrictions have been repeatedly imposed on China to halt its delivery of nuclear weapons technology and know-how. In recent years, China’s proliferation activities seem to have diminished.

States of “Concern”:

• Much of the focus seems to center on Iran, which is believed to have taken steps towards developing a nuclear weapon. Two nuclear enrichment facilities have been discovered. One of them, located in Natanz, is believed to have churned about 1,500 kilograms (3,300 pounds) of low-enriched uranium over the past years. Iran now contains enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon, but Tehran insists that it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes.
• Syria has been another state of concern. Suspected of cooperating and sharing information with North Korea, Israel bombed a supposed Syrian nuclear facility in September, 2007.

States That No Longer Possess Nuclear Weapons:

• The breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 left Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine with nuclear weapons; but these states have since returned their weapons to Russia and joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• Iraq had implemented a weapons program prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War. But UN inspections followed by the U.S.-led invasion earlier this decade has ensured that Iraq’s nuclear program has been completely destroyed.
• Libya voluntarily renounced its nuclear program in 2003. Brazil, Argentina, South Korea and Taiwan have also tabled nuclear weapons programs.

Measures to Halt the Advance of Nuclear Weapons

The International Atomic Energy Agency:

• In 1957, the United Nation’s IAEA was established to promote the peaceful development of nuclear technology while providing a safeguarding agency to ensure that nuclear assistance was not being served for military purposes. The agency has now become a watchdog, making sure that every member state adheres to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Nuclear Test Ban Treaty:

• Signed in Moscow in 1963, this treaty bans weapons tests in the atmosphere, outer space and underwater. It was eventually agreed upon by more than 100 governments, although it does not reduce nuclear stockpiles or halt production of nuclear weapons.

The Outer Space Treaty:

• Signed in 1967, prohibiting nuclear weapons in outer space.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

• Aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and eventual complete nuclear disarmament, the NPT was entered in 1970 and has been joined by 187 parties.
• The treaty recognizes five nuclear weapon states: the United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France. The other states that possess nuclear weapons are not party to the NPT.
• North Korea withdrew in 2003 to pursue nuclear weapon ambitions.
• Although the NPT strives to halt the use of nuclear technology for destructive purposes, it promotes the use of peaceful nuclear programs. The treaty promotes open access to peaceful nuclear technology by all member states under international safeguards (audits and inspections conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency).
• The NPT forbids the five nuclear weapons states from transferring weapons or know-how to other states. It also bars non-nuclear states from acquiring weapons.
• The United States, Russia and the United Kingdom have pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states party to the NPT, although some exceptions apply.

The Seabed Treaty:

• Entered the fray in 1972 to prohibit the placement of nuclear weapons on the ocean floor.

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks:

• SALT I and SALT II were negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union aimed at curtailing the manufacturing of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Agreements on both rounds of talks were signed in 1972 and 1979, respectively.

The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty:

• Signed in 1972, the ABM Treaty limits defense systems that might give one side an advantage during a nuclear war.

Strategic Arms Reduction Talks:

• The START negotiations were the successors of SALTS I and II.
• The first round of negotiations resulted in the comprehensive strategic-arms-reduction agreement signed between George H.W. Bush and Russian-leader Mikhail Gorbachev. The agreement not only limited nuclear stockpiles, but also diminished the number of nuclear weapons possessed by each state. The START I treaty set certain limits on weapons and delivery vehicles that were met by each side in 2001. START I will expire on Dec. 5, 2009, and negotiations are underway to develop a new arms treaty between the two nations.
• Two versions of a START II treaty were signed in 1992 and 1993 by President H.W. Bush and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, with aims of further reducing nuclear stockpiles and delivery vehicles. However, START II never came into force due to lagging negotiations in both governments and fragile relations.

Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty:

• In 2002, the U.S. entered into the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty with Russia. Also known as the Moscow Treaty, it required both countries to reduce their strategic nuclear forces to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by the end of 2012.

START Successor Treaty:

• President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a START successor treaty in September, 2009. Both sides vowed to reduce their nuclear stockpiles to between 1,500 and 1,675 by 2016. At the same time, each side agreed to reduce delivery vehicles from 500 to 1,100, down from 1,600 currently allowed, according to the New York Times.

New Start Treaty

• In the latest agreement between two of the world‘s largest nuclear powers, President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed the ‘New Start’ treaty on April 8, 2010 in Prague. While the treaty calls for both sides to pare back its nuclear arsenals, analysts viewed the event less as an achievement in the administration’s crusade to eliminate the world’s nuclear stockpiles and more as a step to mend relationships between the two countries and set the stage for further arms reductions in the future. The treaty requires each side to reduce its deployed arsenal to no more than 1,550 strategic warheads and 700 launchers within 7 years. The implications of this treaty for both sides is at best minimal, considering previous reduction agreements struck between the United States and Russia, most notably the START successor treaty. The New Start treaty awaits ratification from both sides.

Do Your Own Research

www.armscontrol.org

For a library of fact sheets, analysis, treaties and other information on nuclear arms, visit the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan membership organization.

http://topics.nytimes.com

Up-to-date nuclear developments can be found at New York Times Online.

www.iaea.org

Nuclear news, publications and data is located on the Web site of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

www.globalissues.org

Analysis and breakdown of the nuclear weapons issue is discussed by GlobalIssues.org

What Is Washington Doing?

Focus on Iran:

• Officials in Washington are focusing much of their attention on Iran, which is widely considered to have undertaken enrichment activities as a means to create nuclear weapons.
• The Obama administration is pressing the international community to increase sanctions on Tehran after it announced recently that it has ordered the construction of 10 nuclear enrichment facilities.
• The Obama administration has engaged Iran over its nuclear program but that strategy has produced little, if any, results.
• At the signing of the New Start treaty on April 8, 2010, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev pledged his country’s support for a new round of sanctions against Tehran to help curb its nuclear program, a position that bolsters Washington’s drive to crack down on Iran’s suspected development of nuclear weapons.

President Obama’s plans:

• President Barack Obama came into office promising to move the United States towards a complete dismantling of its nuclear arsenal, but only if the rest of the world would move with him, according to the New York Times.
• Negotiations have been put underway to revamp the cold-war-era strategic arms reduction treaty that expires next month.
• The New York Times reported that Washington is also pushing the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which was narrowly defeated 10 years ago.
• Obama has also said that he has plans to rewrite portions of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, with the thought being that it contains a variety of loopholes.

Concerns with the War on Terror:

• As the war on terror rages in the Middle East, the Obama administration is hoping for continued political stability in Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that shares a border with Afghanistan. Pakistan has been engaged—along with the United States—in efforts to root Taliban and Al Qaeda militants out of its mostly lawless tribal border region of Waziristan.
• Washington has been urging officials in Pakistan to step up its fight against the militants and allow U.S. personnel to cross the border.
• Political stability in Pakistan is critical to the Obama administration, which fears that the country’s nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of terrorists.

Sources

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